Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Understanding Climate Change Skepticism

There is a growing body of research into the social psychological constructs of environmentally relevant group behavior and perceptions. Egalitarians, defined as people with political and social view that emphasis justice and equality, as well as, Solidarists defined as people with communitarian political and social values are significantly more concerned about climate change than are Hierarchists and Individualists.”(Sunstein, 2007. pp546). Hierarchists are defined generally as people that emphasis a striving for excellence and accept stratification within society . Individualists are defined as people who emphasis freedom and are suspicious of governmental intervention. These latter groups have socio-political values and views that cast many of the social, economic and cultural ills of the United States over the past four decades as due to the political agendas of “Egalitarian and Solidarist.” Hierarchists and individualists tend to be republican, conservative or libertarian and have a dim view of governmental social engineering. Their emotional motivation and group biases have made them resistant or skeptical to climatic data and its implications. The concept of human induced global warming threatens their economic world view and the remedies suggested involve considerable governmental regulations. To overcome these biases this paper proposes that arguments about climate change be framed instead as economic development opportunities.

Sociology of Climate Skeptics

In the United States, only half the population thinks global warming is caused by human activity. One in three people believe that global warming is caused by natural cyclic changes (Leiserowitz et al, 2010). In a study of climate skepticism undertaking in the UK, older individuals from lower socio-economic background with conservative views were more likely to express skepticism. The study also showed high levels of skepticism among people who were politically disengaged (Poortinga, et al 2011, pp 1022). Most were white males. Skepticism was found to be highest in the older demographics. This confirms early studies, (Sunstein 2007, Leiserowitz, 2005) that those with conservative hierarchical values and worldviews are more likely to be climate skeptics. Poortinga suggests that one major cause for their skepticism is that economic concerns, such as jobs overshadow environmental issues. The increase in the percentage of those expressing climate skepticism grew in groups hardest hit by the financial collapse of 2008, particularly white males of the lower and middle socio economic strata. He postulates that similar economic fears skew increased skepticism in the older demographics. One conclusion that can be drawn from these studies is that remedies to combat global warming and other environmental issues are seen by climate skeptics as a threat to the economic security. This is conclusion is further supported by the work of Bibbings, 2004; Norton and Leaman 2004 that shows once basic material needs are met “post-materialistic” values such as climate change and protection of the environment become more important.

Political and Cultural Undercurrents of Climate Change

Skepticism of varying degrees is found to be highest in middle aged and older white males classified in the Six Americas study as the “Doubtful” and the “Dismissive (Leiserowitz et al, 2008). These groups have the highest participation in church attendance professional, trade and business groups.
The climate skeptic groups characterized as “Unconcerned”, “Doubtful” and “Dismissive” no longer trust the mainstream “liberal” media and come from every economic and educational background. Economic insecurity is thus only one aspect of climate skepticism. Many well paid and well educated males also hold these views. In comparison those acknowledging climate change, as caused by human activity characterized as the “Alarmed” and “Concerned” skew heavily to female Egalitarian and Solidarist. “Alarmed” are best characterized as largely female global warming activists who see the immediate need for concerted action to reverse warming. “Concerned” are mostly women who believe global warming is happening and action is required, but they do not feel personally threatened. 

There is a gender divide between men and women on the issue of climate change.
 

In a socio-political context women have benefited greatly due to societal changes over the last four decades. More women than men go to college, many laws and provisions have been made for the benefits of women’s health and progress. These advances have to some extent been gained at the expense of men. The high paying manufacturing jobs of the past have been replaced by white collar informational jobs. Women with their superior social interaction skills have succeed in rising up the corporate ranks. As political journalist David Kuhn noted in “The Neglected Voter”, the advances of women and other groups rights not only excluded white
males but alienated them. Feminist and writer Caitlin Finnegan put it succinctly; “In the middle of doing the great work of the 60s, civil rights, women’s liberation, gay inclusion- we decided to stigmatize the white male. The union dues paying, church going, beer drinking family man got nothing but ridicule and venom from us. So he dumped us.” (Kuhn, “The Neglected Voter”, Palgrave Macmillian, 2007).

This can be seen in voting patterns since 1980. No Democratic candidate has received more than 49% of the male vote in Presidential elections. Only 28 out of 100 white male voters are Democrats, a drop of 25 points since 1948. In 2004 Democrats lost 26 of 28 States with the lowest per capita income. Republicans won 19 of 20 States with the lowest median income (Kuhn, 2007). Global warming has been largely accepted by Democrats, it is seen as a Democratic platform supported mostly by women and liberals. It is very difficult for skeptics to separate the issue of climate change from the messengers and their perceived biases.
The psychological judgment heuristic described as attribute substitution ( Kahneman , 2003 pp707) is a useful way to understand the skeptics. When data about climate change is presented to skeptics of climate change an Affect heuristic ties that data in the minds of skeptics with antagonistic liberal social engineering and hot button social issues.


The Challenges of Skepticism

 
There are differences in the types of skepticism; trend skeptics who deny there is such a thing as an upward trend in global temperatures, attribution skeptics who accept the world’s climate maybe changing but do not think that it is caused by human activity and impact skeptics who agree that the world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity but do not think it will lead to substantial detrimental impacts. (Fischer, 2011).
The common trait of skeptics is they are in general more egoistic and uncaring for others and are less responsive to policies based on voluntary restrictions. At the same time these groups are the ones most likely to oppose mandatory government policies (Sunstein, 2007). At a deeper level these attitudes are based on perceptions of human behavior (Fisher et al 2011, pp1025). Fischer’s study involving five European countries with different cultures found commonalities characterized as “folk psychology.” The samplings were taken in urban, rural and bigger cities. They were recorded as interviews on people’s perceptions of society in general. Three characteristics recurred in their perceptions. Humans were described as inherently selfish, governed by habit and/or convenience and money was seen as the only factor that could possibly change people’s behavior (Fischer et al, 2011, pp1028-29). At the same time these subjects describe the societal context in their industrialized countries as consumption-orientated and individualized. Fischer concluded based on these “folk psychologies” that no matter how reasonable and technically feasible, if a sufficient minority of individuals believe collective action to be unrealistic they refuse to participate (Fischer et al, 2011,pp1033).


The debate surrounding climate change has polarized the US population based on important and conflicting economic, political cultural, social and gender values. Rational persuasion has been shown to be largely ineffective as skeptics tend to view the data as biased and those delivering it as motivated by self interest. Effective action to sway these skeptics must involve engaging their self interest and must be seen economically advantageous.


Reframing the Proposition


Essentially, overcoming climate change skepticism is a framing issue. Climate change policy and communications have to be transformed into an endeavor to create the new infrastructure
for the 21st century. This not only sparks self interest with the possibility of perceived economic benefit, but it involves employing middle and lower class white males in infrastructure and engineering jobs relieving them of their underlying economic insecurities. Innovation and economic development are seen as spheres of business, not that of government. In practice this is not the case as all major economic action has governmental regulations. But the opportunity and freedom offered by creating businesses in a new sustainable and clean market sector is appealing. At first there is less regulation and governmental interference, as was the case with the development of the internet.


Course of Action


The International Energy Agency projects about $22 trillion of investment will be needed over the 2006-2030 period. (Newell, 2010,pp254). These costs could be reduced by innovative new energy technologies coming online early. To accomplish this there needs to be a large influx of funds into research and development. Since 1980, with the exception of the 2008-9 stimulus package, the amount of money going to alternative energy R&D in the US has dropped over 50% (Newell, 2010, pp254). This downward trend has been due in part to no external costs being assigned to greenhouse gas emissions. There is little or no economic incentive for adopting new technologies to abate GHG emissions. This requires governments to assign a value to the pollution externalities, and instigate a system such as cap and trade. When in place the new technologies have to meet three criteria to win over climate skeptics. First public policy has to stimulate demand, second the research has to have a dramatic effect, to achieve adoption by the private sector, and thirdly, antitrust and intellectual property protection has to be balanced to encourage competition. (Newell, 2010).


The European Union has adopted such an approach. Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian countries represent the vanguard of progressive solutions to climate change. Not only have they an effective political voice in the Green Party, but the Germans, Dutch and others see climate change as a challenge to their engineering prowess. Per capita Germany releases CO2 at a rate about than half that of the US. They are the technological leaders in sustainable engineering. The Mercedes UN Studio near Stuttgart is a net zero building. It is one of many such buildings in Germany; coming online soon are net positive buildings, the buildings will become energy providers. Over 40% of all energy used is by commercial and residential buildings. The Germans have transformed climate change into a positive challenge, a modern day “race to the moon.” A 20% reduction in CO2 from 1990 levels is projected by 2020. A fast growing new energy service business sector has been created. By 2016, according to Cleantech Market Intelligence the industry will be generating $16 billion dollars annually.

The European model highlights a framework for organizational innovations. The first is CCP programs are more quickly adopted if they are within the spatial and administrative proximity to previous adopters (Vasi,2006). Cities located in the same county are significantly more likely to adopt a program, due to the cultural proximity for social contagion. Adoption was fastest when the environmental activities were linked. Empirical analysis by Vasi showed that environmental degradation was a poor predictor of decisions to adopt climate change programs. The major predictors were the new environmental regulations would save money and reduce air pollution. This demonstrates the importance of successful locally based initiatives in changing doubters into believers and spreading positive environmental change.


Conclusion
The Tragedy of The Commons demonstrates the difficulty in getting governments to agree on mandates. The arguments for instituting climate change have to be framed in the economic opportunity for innovation. We have a once in a lifetime opportunity to create a clean post-industrial world.
This change has to happen on a Local, Regional and State level, encouraged by business friendly government standards. It has to be framed in a manner that the press and media can be used as an ally. The message is we are a moving to a cleaner, healthier, wealthier tomorrow, building the infrastructure of the 21 Century
 

References
Sunstein.,Cass, 2007. On The Divergent American Reactions to Terrorism and Climate Change
Leiserowitz,A.A, Maibach,E.W, Roser-Renouf,C., Smith,N., Dawson,E., 2010. Climategate Opinion and the Loss of Trust
Poortinga,Wouter., Spence,Alex., Lorraine Whitmarsh., Capstick, Stuart., Pidgeon, Nick., 2011 Uncertain climate: An investigation into public skepticism about anthropogenic climate change.
Leiserowitz,A., 2005. American risk perception:is climate change dangerous? Risk Analysis 25, 1433-1442
Leiserowitz,A.A, Maibach,E.W, Roser-Renouf,C., 2008 Global warmings Six Americas
Kuhn, David,. 2007, The Neglected Voter, Palgrave Macmillian
Fisher, A,, Peters, V, Vavra, J, Neebe, M, Megyesi, B,. 2011. Energy use, climate change and folk psychology: Does sustainability have a chance? Results from a qualitative study in five European countries.
Newell, R, 2010. The role of markets and policies in delivering innovation for climate change mitigation.
Vasi,I,. 2006. Organizational Environments, Framing Processes, and the Diffusion of the Program to Address Global Climate Change Among Local Governments in the United States.
Kahneman,D,. 2003. A Perspective on Judgment and Choice.

Copyright 2012

Monday, December 24, 2012

The Social Health and Political Impacts of Pornography





In the last few decades, with the introduction of the Internet, viewing pornography has surfaced as a serious social and health concern.  Studies undertaken on the impact of pornography can be divided into three areas of concern: (1) the effect upon the development of children and adolescents (2) the health and social impact on adults (3) the health issues for performers in pornographic media.   The results of these studies unearthed some very alarming trends and impacts that require addressing.

Children and Adolescents
Children and teens are the group most likely to suffer adverse effects from viewing pornography. A 2001 poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation of 15 to 17 year old said, they came across pornography accidentally. A study done by The University of New Hampshire published in the February 2007 edition of “Pediatrics” found that 42% of adolescents aged 10-17 had viewed pornographic in the last 12 months. Of that 42%, two out of three said they did not want to view them or sought them out. The average age that children first come into contact with pornography is 11, and the 12-17 year old age group is the largest consumer demographic. 90% of those between the ages of 8 to 16 who report viewing pornography do so while working on their homework. This makes the internet and particularly chat rooms associated with porn sites fertile grounds for child molesters and sociopaths.  Clearly, something needs to be done. One measure of the deleterious effects of pornography for adolescents was published in a study done by Emily Rothman, from the Boston University School of Public Health. Rothman notes that recent studies done with high school aged girls in the Northeast found that “sex parties” are currently an “accepted activity of certain subset of teens.” In her study of 495 females aged 14-20 using school-based clinics, 7.3% reported having multiple partner sex (MPS). Of that group, the adolescents most likely to engage in MPS were aged 14-15.

Table 1  (N = 328)

Total sample (%)
Respondents with multi-partner sex experience as a % of total sample
Total
100.0
7.3 %
Age
(%) of total sample by age

14–15
14.0%
10.9%
16–17
45.7 %
7.3 %
18–20
40.2%
6.1 %
Race/ethnicity
% of total sample by race

White
39.3
9.3%
Black
22.0
6.9 %
Hispanic
33.2
5.5 %
Other
5.5
5.6 %
Over half (52%) claimed there was pressure to engage. 71% of the girls had viewed
pornography in the last month (Table 2).  35% of girls in the MPS group consented without any coercion. 45% of the MPS involved one or more males not using a condom, much higher than the 30% figure for teens in general. What the long term psychological implications on these adolescents are unknown, as are the possible negative, sexual, reproductive and other health risks.
Table 2 (N = 328)

Total sample (%)
Among respondents with MPS experience (%)
Smoked cigarettes in past month
36.5
70.8
Heavy drinking in past month
32.3
41.7
Marijuana use in past month
40.4
60.9
Ever diagnosed with STI
19.4
36.4
Ever been pregnant
22.2
22.7
Very early sexual initiation (≤14 years)
38.4
60.9
Psychological distress
23.8
39.1
Suicidal ideation or attempt in past year
17.4
33.3
Physical fighting in past year
36.8
38.1
Ever gang member
9.6
19.0
Ever experienced physical or sexual violence from a dating partner
44.5
78.3
Ever experienced childhood sexual abuse
9.4
28.6
Exposed to pornography in past month
34.1
71.4
Ever forced or threatened to participate in sexual behaviors that the perpetrator saw in pornography
10.8
52.4

Adults
Recent Meta data analysis has identified four potential risks of pornography for  
adults: (Perrin Paul C, 2008, Vol 15)(1) developing sexually deviant tendencies; (2) committing sexual offenses; (3)difficulties in one’s intimate relationships (4) accepting rape myths
These findings mirror those of the 1986 Surgeon General’s workshop on pornography and public health. Numerous studies undertaken since then have concluded consistent exposure to pornography leads to addiction. The symptoms are similar to drug or cigarette addiction. The consumer is hooked, over time more hardcore pornography is needed to arouse and stimulate. This is followed by desensitization and finally acting out. While men are the predominant viewers of pornography, women are more likely to act out the on screen behavior. Frequent viewing for men has been associated with increased sexually aggressive behavior. The National Council on Sexual Addiction and Compulsivity (NCSAC) notes that 70-75% of sex addicts have considered suicide, 60% have financial problems, 58% take part in illegal activities and 83% struggle with alcoholism, drug addiction or compulsive behavior.

Performers
In the December 2012 issue of Sexually Transmitted Diseases, a study done on 168
sex industry performers, 112 women and 56 men, 47 of the performers were diagnosed with a total of 96 infections. More troubling was that porn industry protocols significantly under reported 95% of oropharyngeal and 91% of rectal infections, as the conditions were asymptomatic. These performers were sexual active not only within the industry, but outside in the general public, passing infections onto unsuspecting partners. The list of conditions these porn performers were prone to included; HIV, rectal and throat gonorrhea, tearing of the throat, vagina and anus, chlamydia of the eye.   
The industry indifference to the health concerns of those working in the pornography has forced some local authorities to take action. When Derrick Burts, a porn actor was diagnosed HIV-positive at the Adult Industry Medical Health Care Foundation in December 2010, California State and local Los Angeles officials claimed the clinic failed to cooperate with their investigation into other possible infections (Mohajer, 2011). Burts said that instead of getting information from the clinic on how to get follow-up care, he was told to avoid the media, change his phone number and leave town.

The Politics of Pornography
For decades legislators have wrestled over pornography as a public health issue.
Attempts by Congress to regulate pornography through the Communications Decency Act (CDA) and the Child Online Protection Act (COPA) met with rejection by the Supreme Court as being too broad, violating the First Amendment Right to Free Speech.   
The challenge the Court faces in arriving at a judgment on pornography is circumscribed against any moral considerations based on religion.  Pornography is a by-product of the attempt to separate sexuality from religion.  Supporters of pornography are mostly secular and well-educated intellectuals.  The desire of secular thinkers to rid the world of religion, seen as superstition, requires breaking the connection between morality and sex. Over half of all religious strictures in Islam relate to sex and the relationship between men and women. There are similar strictures in Judaism.  In Christianity, sex was seen as part of the sacrament of marriage and a key component of family life.  In the search to find a substitute for the emotional and spiritual uplift supplied by religions, secular thinkers turned to art, music and literature. Many works now accepted as literature such as, “Lady Chatterley Lover” by DH Lawrence were once deemed obscene. For most of the 20th Century, until the 1973 Miller v California Supreme Court ruling, pornography was illegal in the US. The central issue in the case was who determines what is obscene. The timing of the ruling coincided with the beginning of the Gay Liberation and Feminist movements. For both gays and many feminists the traditional views of sex and gender had to be challenged to affect the changes they wanted to see happen. That meant attacking centuries-old religious inspired notions of sexual behavior. Instead of being a sacrament, sex was reframed as a biological component of being human.  Pornography maybe distasteful, but it was not wrong. The Supreme Court unable to come up with a definitive ruling decided it was best left up to local community standards.

The Economic Power of Pornography
The pornographic industry generates worldwide revenues of $100 billion. The US is the largest producer and consumers of pornography, accounting for $13.5 billion. That figure exceeds the revenue of the professional football, basketball and baseball franchises combined. The enormous sums generated by the industry have created strange bedfellows. Until, they were outed by the New York Times, Goldman Sachs owned up to 16% of Village Voice Media, a company sued for running sex trafficking ads. For Telephone, cable and satellite providers pornography is a major profit center.
In the November 2012 elections, a local measure on the Los Angeles ballot, Measure B requiring the use of condoms for vaginal and anal sex in porn films was passed with 55.9% of the vote. The opponents of Measure B pulled out all the stops to prevent the measure getting on the ballot and funded a media blitz campaign for its defeat. Who were these opponents? The San Gabriel Valley Legislative Coalition of Chambers of Commerce and the Valley Industry and Commerce Association (Vica), the latter sponsored by the likes of Chase Bank, Walmart and Southwest Airline.  Along with them in the pro-business corner promoting unsafe sex was the Los Angeles County Republican Party and the Los Angeles County Republican Women’s Federation. Lining up with these pro-business neoliberal industry and political heavyweights were left of center politicians such as the Free Speech Coalition, Larry Flynt and John Stagliano, owner of hard core porn site Evil Angel, as well as porn studios such as Vivid. One of biggest contributors of the campaign to defeat Measure B was Manwin, a foreign porn cartel. To confuse the issue, groups with names like the Coalition for Senior Citizenry and the Council of Concerned Women Voters were set up to be alleged opponents of the measure. The measure sponsored by the Aids Healthcare Foundation (AHF) was not just a victory for a small underfunded group of activists against powerful and well-funded opponents, but for public health in general.

Health Policy and Pornography
The numerous studies exploring the societal impact of pornography demonstrate conclusively that there are serious health and societal impacts.  To resolve these issues the industry should be subject to regulation and new legal constraints. The growth of pornography can be attributed to Access, Affordability and Anonymity. These are the areas that should be addressed.
Legal Policy
The Supreme Court needs to revisit the 1973 Miller ruling, most of political gains made by feminist, gays and others are now achieved.  Psychologists and sociologist have delineated behaviors that can be construed as pornographic as opposed to artistic statements or free speech.  The primary aim of pornography is to arouse the viewer by portraying sexual relations that violate conventional standards. Two aspects of this are, violence against women, portrayed as willing victims and degradation.  Both these aspects can be classed as criminal intent to do harm.
Internet Regulations
A new .xxx suffix is needed and to be the exclusive domain of pornographers.
Effectively, porn sites will be moved from the commercial realms of .com, .us, .org, .net, .tv etc. Critics argue that pornographers will relocate offshore and avoid regulation. This can be addressed by making it the responsibility of the internet service providers to block ISPs that carry pornography on anything other than .xxx designations. ISP providers will be very
alert to pirate pornography sites on their commercial .com servers, as blocking an ISP will affect their regular commercial clients.
As stated earlier, 66% of adolescents were directed to pornography sites unwittingly.
This is done by web designers using “spam” “redirecting” and “mousetrapping.” In this case, the viewer did not make a conscious choice but was kidnapped.  There is no basis for the argument concerning limiting of free speech.  These web processes should be outlawed and sites that use these processes fined or taken down.

Economic Regulation
Pornography is big business, generating $100 billion annually. Governments need to impose a “sin” tax similar to that imposed on alcohol and cigarette. Opponent claim that this is not possible, because of the chaotic nature of the Internet. This is true to a point, but every internet user is connected through a major service provider; the cable, telephone or wireless companies. Public Utilities such as the gas, water and electric companies are capable of monitoring use and paying the government additional levies. Privacy advocates worry that the government regulations will invade the privacy of the public. That needs not be the case if pornographic sites in addition to being taxed are given a special .xxx suffix address.  Taxing pornography on a special designation will reduce the impact on adolescents, as the availability and costs will out of their reach.

Protection for Performers
Performers in pornography should be required to have constant physical and psychological check- ups. Gail Dines, a professor of sociology and women’s studies at Wheelock College stated that; “body-punishing, brutal pornography” has become “the number one most profitable pornography,” and she argued that poverty, racism, and sexism drive the industry. “In an ideal world, they would have trouble finding women who would elect to do this” for employment, she said, adding that she views pornography as propaganda for a patriarchic social structure. This is not true. There are women and men in the industry who are dedicated to being sex performers and see it as a lucrative career. There are many female owned pornographic producers most notably former porn star Jenna Jameson.

Summary
These proposals do not seek to ban pornography but to regulate it, just like any
other large industrial concern. The US has Health and Safety laws overseen by OSHA,
and the protections offered to employees in other industries should be extended to porn
performers. Similarly, it behooves society to protect the social and emotional wellbeing of children and adults. This can be achieved by taxes making pornography less available and by
reasonable regulations imposed on service providers.

References
Perrin, Paul, et al. Health education’s role in framing pornography as a public health issue: local and national strategies. Promotion and Education, 2008 15.(1), pp11-18
Rothman, Emily, F et al. Multi-person Sex among a Sample of Adolescent Female Urban Clinic Patients. Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine, Vol 89, No 1, pp
129-137
Mohajer, Shaya, Porn trade group has plans for actor’s care, Huffington Post, May 26 2011
Dines, Gail. LA County's Measure B is a major win for safe sex in adult entertainment, Guardian UK, Nov 12 2012

The Price Of Peace



In his acclaimed book “The End of History and the Last Man”, Francis Fukuyama explores the possibility of an ecological catastrophe and states ‘yet even these extreme circumstances would appear unlikely to break the grip of technology over civilization and science’s ability to replicate itself.”[1] The reason he gives is the need for states to defend themselves. War he posits will mean that technology is with us always. Modern communications have spread the scientific method throughout the world. There is no going back.  This has far reaching implications for our future, for consumerism, the environment and its relationship to the threat of war. 
Liberal Capitalism
The nature of Anglo American liberalism developed from the thought of Locke and Hobbes produces a society preoccupied with its own material well-being.[2]  The fundamental right is self preservation, as Fukuyama notes “in the absence of positive, “higher” goals what usually fills the vacuum at the heart of Lockean liberalism is the open-ended pursuit of wealth.”[3]  In today’s American culture, the pursuit of wealth is seen as the supreme virtue, billionaires are modern day saints.  In earlier times, saints such as Francis of Assisi and Rose of Lima were praised for their poverty and humility.  Christianity was a religion that flourished in a slave mentality. Liberal Capitalism has been the political process whereby a former slave has the opportunity to be a master. In the bestselling book by Tom Wolfe “Bonfire of The Vanities”, wealthy investment bankers and stockbrokers are accurately portrayed as “Masters of The Universe.”  The freest man in modern capitalism is the wealthy man. It is no coincidence that Christianity in the US is concentrated in the lower classes as well as in areas of rural and urban poverty. The poorest States are also the most religious. In that regard Marx was accurate when he identified religion as the “opium of the people.” 
In order to maintain the freedom brought about by wealth, western Liberal Capitalism has to assure the necessary raw materials and manufacturing processes are uninterrupted.  It was this need that drove nineteenth century imperialism.  Cecil Rhodes the British colonial politician summed up nineteenth century imperial policy as “The absorption of the greater portion of the world under our rule simply means the end of wars.[4] Britain in the nineteenth century and the United States today assure the continuation of their systems and economic way of life by establishing a world-wide network of military bases. When a source of raw materials is threatened the military machine goes into action, as happened when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991.  
The spread of American style capitalism and consumerism is underwritten by the threat of military force.  Peace is maintained as long as consumerism is not threatened. This is accomplished through trade.
Better to Trade Than Invade
The premise that trade and interdependence decreases the likelihood of war is hotly contested. There are two schools of thought; Liberals believe that states would rather trade than invade; Realists on the other hand believe interdependence creates vulnerability, and increases the likelihood of war.  The problem with both Liberal and Realist assertions is that neither can explain satisfactorily the run ups to World Wars 1 and 2. Dale Copeland has suggested another variable. His study of the causes for war introduces the concept of trade expectations. When the trade relationship is mutually beneficial and there are future gains, the risk of war decreases. When the trade relationship is severed and future gains are diminished, the state that is most dependent is likely to go to war.[5]  Effectively the security of the state is being undermined.  What this means for consumerism is that should China decide to stop manufacturing electronics such as mobile phones for American companies, these companies would go out of business as nearly all mobile phones are manufactured China. The US telecommunications systems would fall apart. Fearing that its electronics industry, computer industry and other high profit centers were threatened, war would ensue. Fundamental, to maintaining modern consumerism is an asymmetric relationship, where one State effectively has control of another States’ economic well-being.   The risk of war is heightened by outsourcing and the spread of consumerism.
Spreading the Gospel of Consumerism
The rise of Asian countries from Third World to economic powers was largely facilitated by international investment.  Capitalists, as Gabor Steingart points out, cannot be blamed[6]. Their role is to maximize profit on their investments. Policymakers saw the expansion into Asia as a means to maintain peace and as valuable political leverage.  Moving boring, dull, repetitive low skilled jobs overseas not only removed the environmental costs society pays in the US, but it would allow for Americans to focus on more skilled and environmentally friendly employment in the service and high tech sectors.  The lower cost of overseas labor would drive greater company profits which would be invested in a cleaner, modern US economy. In the process new markets would open creating new jobs at home and everyone would effectively get a pay raise, as imports can be purchased at a fraction of the cost of domestic production.  This rosy projection ignored history, human nature and the political ambitions of those overseas manufacturing countries.
From an environmental point of view, it has already been a catastrophe and the benefits of peace maybe fleeting. In a little over a decade from 1990 China’s emissions of CO2 have increased by 100%.  Outdoor pollution has been responsible for nearly 400,000 premature deaths a year as well as rising rates of diarrhea, bladder problems, stomach and liver cancer. China’s deserts are growing at a rate of 965 square miles a year, seventy percent of its lakes and rivers are highly polluted.  A similar picture can be sketched in India and other Asian countries.[7]
Has this environmental destruction in the name of cheaper goods assured the West of peace and prosperity? Steinhart shows there is no historical precedent. Prior to World War 1 at the height of European imperialism and industrialization there were no indications as to future root causes for war to happen.
Nor have the Asian countries been willingly to remain low wage manufacturers for the West. The Chinese and Indian governments have poured money into research and education. Asian countries want to be high tech economic powerhouses.
Behind this drive for success is the painful memory of Western colonial humiliation.  Unlike Anglo American Liberalism based on reason and desire, Asian, Near East and many Southern European countries place value on the “need for recognition.” This need identified by Hegel states that humans seek satisfaction in honor. Throughout history, attested to in famous books like the Iliad, mankind has sought to find glory to be masters of others. In Asia this was exemplified by the Japanese culture of the Samurai warrior. Work was below them; their needs were furnished by the population at large.
At the end of the eighteenth century Steinhart describes how the British willfully pushed Indian opium into China. Within a few years over a quarter of the population was addicted. What followed was the systematic rape of China’s natural resources and subjugation of its people by the British and other Western powers.  Their humiliation at the hands of Western powers is a national insult that has not been or will be forgotten until it can restore its honor. 
Effectively, China has declared economic warfare on the United States and the West.  They will bring most of the West to their knees to restore their honor.  It is very significant that the Chinese have not allowed the population at large to share in the spoils of recent growth. Most of the wealth is concentrated in the hands of the elite. Wealth is not seen as a virtue, but as a tool for power.  In a matter of a decade the Chinese have mastered modern manufacturing processes, conquered space, tested anti-satellite missiles[8], bought up major electronics companies, secured raw materials in the Near East, Africa and South America. They forced Western countries to divulge their technological blue prints.[9] What is not given is stolen through economic espionage or cyber terrorism.  Consumerism has not only resulted in environment degradation it has laid the seeds for the demise of the West. Consumers in the US will one day be serfs, nostalgic for the days of plenty and cursing those that sold them out to their Asian Masters.
Wounded Beasts of The East
Of the 900-1000 US military bases a quarter are in Asia.  These bases serve to protect American commercial interests, but for the local inhabitants they are an environmental time-bomb, poisoning their air, water and land.  The American military presence is a source of deep shame and increasing anger. A study was undertaken and reported in the Asia-Pacific Journal of the environmental impact of bases in Japan, Okinawa and the Philippines.
In 1991 the US returned Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base to the Philippines.  The terms of the treaty left clean up to the Philippines. When Mt Pinatubo exploded, Clark Air Force Base was used as an emergency shelter. No-one informed those sheltering there that the ground was laced with toxic chemicals. The shallow drinking wells used during their stay resulted in serious health consequences. At Subic Bay, former ship workers have come down with cancer, asbestosis and other ailments. Over 1000 have died and another 1600 are seriously ill, from base related contamination according to a local NGO.[10] 
A similar litany of toxic encounters have been discovered in Japan; the former Communications Station at Onna Point has yielded cadmium, lead, arsenic, PCBs and mercury pollution,  Camp Kuwae was found to have lead contamination at levels twenty times higher than acceptable, along with chromium and arsenic.  These toxic encounters were discovered only when the bases and station were scheduled to be turned back to Japan.  There are hundreds more such bases with unknown environmental histories. A sense of the scope of the pollution problem can be gained from a systematic examination of US bases in Germany. In 1992 the cost to clean up 309 military sites was $3 billion.  Germans mostly get their drinking water from aquifers. To clean up groundwater contamination around Mannheim, a town of 350,000 people, cost over $10 million dollars and took a decade to complete.[11]
US bases overseas are not subject to mandatory regulations or even the host countries own environmental standards. Nor can the host country do inspections, even though Japan pays the US $6.4 billion a year in what is called a “Sympathy Budget” to run the bases.  Anger at the US environmental pollution, crime and prostitution in Okinawa has resulted in mass demonstrations.  When Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama failed to live up to his campaign pledge to move the US base at Okinawa, he resigned in disgrace. Such is the depth of feelings and the power of honor in a shame culture.
The Military and The Environment
It costs the US $6-$700 billion each year to maintain hundreds of bases around the world. That is $2000 per year for every man woman and child. These bases are maintained to insure the American Consumer Lifestyle is protected and grows. There is another price paid as well, one of serious environment pollution.  In 1989 Camp Lejeune was designated a Superfund Clean-Up site. Trichloro Ethylene (TCE), a cleaning solvent used in 1960s had polluted the ground water aquifers.  Safe levels for TCE are 5 parts per billion. At Camp Lejeune the readings were 1400 parts per billion.  The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry found high rates of miscarriages, birth defects and leukemia in the local population. There are over 700 lawsuits filed against the Federal Government.[12]
In Newport News, VA the pollution caused by bases in the area bases has left a deadly and still largely unknown legacy that covers hundreds of square miles near Norfolk Virginia.  The Daily Press reported just a few of the problems “They include poisoning of marine life -- posing a danger to those who would eat it and putting great sections of water off-limits to anglers. They include deposits of substances that are lethal -- but whose location we don't know, since accurate records weren't kept. They include acres of soil and patches of groundwater that are contaminated by arsenic, gunpowder, fuel, asbestos and other substances that cause cancer. They aren't confined, but reach from Langley Air Force Base to Cheatham Annex, from Fort Eustis to the Naval Weapons Station Yorktown”[13].
Every year the Department of Defense generates more hazardous waste than the five largest chemical companies combined.  In fairness to the military, the Pentagon has made environmental cleanup and prevention an integral part of operations.  The political, public relations, health and financial costs are too high for pollution to be ignored.  But the nature of modern warfare means environmental degradation is inevitable. By some estimates the world’s militaries combined use more petroleum products than Japan, the world’s second largest economy and a quarter of all jet fuel.[14] When unexploded ordnances, nuclear waste, biological weapons, noise pollution, chemical defoliants and other by-products of warfare are considered, an ecology disaster is almost inevitable.  
The United States spends about the same on defense than the rest of the world combined.  The primary purpose of this enormous expenditure is to maintain a way of life based on consumerism that is not sustainable.  But the end of consumerism as we know it will not come from environmental collapse.  Instead consumerism will fail in the face of Authoritarian Capitalism.

The End of Consumerism
Environmentalist and ecologists see a doomsday scenario; American consumerism will spread worldwide leading to an environmental collapse.  They project the current American consumer lifestyle to fast developing countries especially China.  This reasoning has a number of flaws.
Francis Fukuyama points out there is no evidence that adopting capitalism results in democracy or liberalism. He points not just to China, but to numerous South American and Near East countries and even to Franco’s Spain.  Not only does capitalism not require liberalism, but the Anglo American form traced back to Locke and Hobbes is specific to the history and thinking of a very small portion of mankind.  More likely is authoritarian capitalism similar to what is happening in China.
For decades it has been assumed that the US was invincible because of its nuclear and high technology weaponry.  This is no longer the case. China has demonstrated that it has effective anti-satellite weapons.  Those weapons used against American satellites would disable the military machine. All modern weapons use satellite guidance and communications. It was also assumed that American technological superiority would never be surpassed. Today, most electronics are made in Asia, mostly in China. They are also leading in alternative energy.  China controls 99% of the rare metals and raw materials used in solar panels, hybrid cars, superconductors and other advanced technologies.[15]
Our military is effectively a paper tiger.  The day is dawning when the Chinese will assert their superior technological power. Liberal Capitalism and consumerism will end. 
It will not be a benevolent or a kind change.  China with a quarter of the world’s population has the capacity to control the technological advanced nations, with the possible exception of Germany.  The Germans never signed onto the reckless outsourcing of manufacturing and Wall Street shenanigans; instead they created what is called Stakeholder Capitalism.[16]  Siemens still produces electronics in Stuttgart; BMW still makes it cars in Munich.  Germany is planning a sustainable future using Green technologies. In technology they are the only match for the Chinese.
The population concerns expressed by environmentalists will dissolve away. The populations of Europe are shrinking, and those of the developing world little use to the Chinese. In authoritarian capitalism those without an economic purpose will be terminated.  Currently, according to the FBI, USB drives carried into China by American executives are infected with a Trojan horse so important information can be later accessed. In future, the Chinese controlled authorities will use new nanotechnologies that allow small homing devices to be implanted in the citizens of the subservient nations including those in the US.   In the worst case scenario, the standard of living except for a small elite cadre of functionaries will be reduced to a subsistence level, and at best small non threatening businesses will be allowed to serve local populations.  Chinese will become the Lingua Franca.
The shame of nineteenth century capitalism will be revenged. The ignored warnings of union leaders, left leaning politicians and Conservatives like Pat Buchanan[17] will ring a constant clarion of miss opportunity and regret. The Price of Peace, the price of consumerism, the price of liberal capitalism will be centuries of slavery.  From an environmental point of view Mother Earth will breathe a sigh of relief.



[1] Fukuyama, Francis. “The End of History and the Last Man” Macmillian Free Press, pp 87,1992
[2] Ibid, pp145
[3] Ibid, pp160
[4]  Steingart, Gabor. “The War For Wealth.” Mc Graw-Hill, 2008
[5] Copeland, Dale C. “Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations.”  International Security, Vol. 20, no.4 Spring 1996.
[6][6]Steingart, Gabor. “The War For Wealth.” Mc Graw-Hill, 2008
[7] [7]Steingart, Gabor. “The War For Wealth.” Mc Graw-Hill, 2008
[8] http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=space&id=news/CHI01177.xml
[9] http://www.defensenews.com/article/20111116/DEFSECT01/111160310/Congress-Challenges-GE-China-Aviation-Deal
[11] Satchell, Michael. “The mess we've left behind.” U.S. News & World Report, 11/30/92, Vol. 113 Issue 21, p28,
[12] Goode, Darren, “Investigative Panel Targeting Pollution At Military Bases.” CongressDaily. 5/25/2007
[13] Editorial.“A toxic legacy: The scale of the military's pollution is huge, the scale of clean-up is not.” Daily Press (Newport News, VA), Jun 15, 2007
[14] Ecologist, “War on the Environment.” Vol. 33 Issue 4, p44, May2003
[15] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6082464/World-faces-hi-tech-crunch-as-China-eyes-ban-on-rare-metal-exports.html
[16] Lind, Michael. “The failure of shareholder capitalism” http://www.salon.com/2011/03/29/failure_of_shareholder_capitalism/
[17] http://buchanan.org/blog/yankee-utopians-in-a-chinese-century-4227